I aspire to be intelligent with moments of genius. So far, I have managed awkward with moments of competence.
5.24.2011
NPR Music is full of label shills. Seriously. It surprised me too.
5.11.2011
Peter Orszag, how did you go from healthcare reform pwrhouse at CBO and OMB to CitiGroup?
10.10.2008
Guilty Knowledge
Dylan Rattigan of CNBC (shown in this clip from yesterday's MSNBC Morning Joe) was on *today's* show calling for FBI investigations of every highly leveraged bank and insurer. He said, and I am paraphrasing, "There must be emails out there that say that we can't do this or we can't cover these policies. That is criminal."
Mr. Rattigan, you are wrong . Three points:
1. If you want to hunt people criminally, there are actual criminals out there to hunt. There were so many mortgage lenders that used underhanded techniques to lend that we could just reconceive the FBI as the "Fraud on Borrowers Investigatorium" for the next ten years. Of course.
2. The institutions that you are talking about were regulated and had capital requirements - i.e. the amount of cash they had to have on hand in order to lend or insure what they did. If you don't like those requirements, just wait - they're changing. If there were those that violated that requirements, I don't think there were many of them, and I think the litigation, etc. will bring that to light. Bottom line: most of this was legal per the rules of the market at the time.
3. The emails you cite would come from people who realized that the emperor had no clothes. So, if you were stupid enough not to notice, you get off scott free. If you were smart enough to sound a quiet alarm, we throw the book at you for not speaking up louder. Seems to me we should promote you instead. Sure, you could have spoken up, but if you have this kind of vision - which is both clear and relatively conservative - I think we want you on the executive floor for the coming few years instead of warming a cell in a MinSec block somewhere in Kansas.
Which brings me to my final point: This media, the same one that didn't sound any alarm until the market was well beyond recovery, is now looking for its next story: a high-profile trial. That won't help. It will turn into a witch hunt and distract us all from the real work that needs to be done on Wall Street. You want to "hurt" these people? Have the companies fire 'em. Trust me, they had all of their money in the market so they are bleeding with the rest of us.
7.30.2008
Caution Below: Attorneys Falling
"There was a frothiness that occurred as a result of the Blackstones and the Apollos
using mortgage-backed securities to fund their buyouts. It was a lot like junk
bonds becoming the instrument of choice in the late 80's and early 90's."
White explained that, in 2004, there were only $98 billion worth of
mortgage-backed securities issued. In 2008, he said, that number ballooned to
$314 billion. "So we grew right along with client demand. And now that market
has contracted severely. That $314 billion from last year will go to roughly $60
billion in 2008 -- an 80% contraction."
All fine and good, but don't let me catch profits per partner anywhere near where they were last year if you're gonna let people go in such numbers.
7.28.2008
News, Paid for by Prada
Interesting, sure. I have two questions. First, would it pay for the NYT to cut back on certain coverage to increase margins for the owner? Taking the opposite tack, is there a way to make the standard news content more attractive to advertisers? I am not sure there is without hindering usability either online or in the paper.
Second, setting aside the Sunday RE guide, which is long-standing, would new additions like T magazine succeed if not for their association with the venerable NYT? If the NYT lends gravitas to these products, it does so largely through its reputation as a news organization, in which case the brand itself has to recieve some credit. Yes, the paper makes the highest margins on ads in peripheral business units, but they spring from a trunk that establishes the brand. Think of Google - the ads pay the bills, but the search and services must continue to improve so that Google remains the most desirable place to place those ads.
7.17.2008
Napolitano Complex
1. General Welfare clause: the government can only spend money for the general welfare, not for private companies. Fannie and Freddie used to be government-owned, but because they have shareholders now, they are no longer eligible for public funds.
2. Equal Protection clause: The goodly judge reminds us that all American laws must be equally applied, so the Fed can't chew gum, I mean provide funds to these companies, unless it brought some for the whole class - including, he points out, Indymac.
First, you'd think a judge would rely on some precedent or case law or something, but the Judge's argument stand instead on bald, sweeping statements about the broadest meaning of Constitution. As a former judge, Mr. Napolito well knows that the Constitution does not operate this way. There are several hundred years of case law setting out the nuances. You have the right counsel, but not for every trial, appeal, or motion. You have the right to assemble, but a permit can be required. And you have the right to equal protection - but that requires a protected class and permits some discretion. You'd expect a judge to at least acknowledge that he's glossing over this - the actual manifestation of the Constitution in modern American law. He doesn't.
Second, the arguments fail on their merits.
General Welfare: Fannie and Freddie own the vast majority of American mortgages, representing both the stability of home ownership and a HUGE chunk of the marketplace. If they fail, it hurts every single American.
Further, the Fed is running to protect these companies in large part because they are tightly regulated so that the market has always had a tacit understanding that they were guaranteed by the Federal government. That government guarantee, long implied and never disavowed, was put in place to empower all Americans to buy homes. If the government now has to make good on it, that is the execution of its powers for the general welfare.
The judge claims the companies are now private. The government caps the size of the loans each can buy and determines what is and is not "conforming." The Macs then don't get to selectively accept or deny loans. How, then, Mr. Napolitano, are these private entities?
Equal Protection: Last I checked financial institutions were not a protected class.
Second, there is the point that Fannie and Freddie aren't truly private entities, and so are part of the government, not citizens of the U.S. like private companies.
Third, what law is being applied unequally here? This is the Federal Reserve, a federal agency, acting within its discretion to carry out its mission - to preserve the integrity of American markets. Every time the Fed acts, it is targeting a subset of the market - why aren't all of those inequitable? Further, there is no charge that Mr. Bernanke is doing this for corrupt purposes. He is acting for the market, not for his personal or political interests.
Finally, the good judge may be looking at this at too high a level. He says the laws should apply equally between the companies. What if the laws should apply equally to the American people? At that level, Bernanke's actions do the most to help Americans equally. Indymac accounts were insured by the FDIC, so investor losses are covered. Fannie and Freddie mortgages are not insured, so damage to buyers is not. As for investors of both Companies - both took known risk and both will now lose all or close to all of their investments. The "bailout" is going to just keep these companies afloat; it won't buy back shares at their prices from 2 years ago. Seems like the Fed's actions treat both investors and depositors/buyers equally, so what's the problem?
4.18.2008
Law School (and B School) by the Cold Heartless Numbers
That prompted my comment, which applies (I think) to both law and b-schools: [Note: the article segregate the top-14 from the rest of tier 1 (1-50) because there, 1/2 intead of 1/3 of the students get good jobs. I would argue my logic below also applies there]
Some people find this view overly cynical, so I'll do a little to defend it:This nearly got to an interesting story: If you are in the top 1/3 of your
class in law schools ranked 15-50, you are more likely to get a job. It is
easier to get into school number 50 than number 15, and an average student at
school 15 will likley excel at school 50. If the top 1/3 of students at both
schools are equally likely to get a big firm job (within perhaps $10-15K
starting salary of each other), the smart-but-not-stellar student would be far
wiser to attend school 50 where he or she is more likely to actually make it
into the top third.And another news flash: smart students go to lower-ranked
schools because those schools pay them to. Another debt-reducing solution.
- It is a lot of money. Law and Business teach economic efficiency in its many and varied forms. Paying $150 to earn $40 is not a good deal, and this is a profession, not an artistic calling so the money matters.
- Anyone who finds this too calculating has never been to either law or business school. Spend one week there and see how people covertly calculate their precise seat placement, track the complex calculus of social status, and game the system and their classmates in everything from sharing their class notes to interviewing for jobs to psyching people out before the journal writing competitions. This little bit of math is nothing.