Political Tidbit

Romney has decided NOT to advertise on television in ANY of the 21 states going into super Tuesday. It was my impression that money wins elections in large part because it permits media buys of precisely this type. With McCain seen as having momentum, a media blitz by McCain's camp would only serve to underscore that to a public that hears a defeaning silence from Romney.

I think this is a fatal error. I give McCain a 90% shot at the nomination. Oh, and I think Romney was right last night -- McCain's the Republican the Dems want to run against.

Also: for those who have not heard, the Dems have something called "Superdelegates." These are delegates who get to vote in the convention but are not affiliated with a state. There are over 400 of them, out of 3000+ delegates. They are huge in a tight race. Who the heck thought up this system?

Political Tidbit

1. Is it legal to take the delegates away from Florida primary voters? I just don't know.

2. Edwards is purportedly out. He says he won't play kingmaker for Hillary or Obama. Would it matter? Are Edwards supporters more Obama or more Hillary people? I can't tell. I think they just drop into the GenPop, as the wardens say.

3. I think this is a good indication that, like our guesses, that Edwards was not interested in a vice presidency.

4. Enough about the dems -- their primary last night meant nothing. On to the reps and America's Mayor, who is reported to be dropping out and tossing his support behind McCain. If so, is that the end for Romney? Also, same question as before: are hawkish middle of the road on social issues supporters of Rudy really going to jump into the socially conservative, potentially big government, but still hawkish McCain camp?

Political Tidbit

Three short thoughts.

1. Slate argues that W's final SOTU (State of the Union) sounded so close to prior speeches that it implies he has not learned anything. The administrations "how about more of the same" policies leave me inclined to believe it. Is there any sign that W acknowledges the mistakes in his presidency?
   
2. 1.5 years ago, we saw stories that McCain was wandering the halls of R bigwigs stalking support. I scoffed then, and thought, "He was laughed at then; he'll be laughed at now." Now he is the front runner. Did those alliances lead to this status? Have they propelled him over Romney?
   
3. I am famous for my dislike of the one issue voter. That issue is usually Israel, and my refrain is that Israel policy has not changed in substance for nearly 20 years. That said, I am not a one issue voter, but that issue IS on my list. With Hillary, I think we get more Clinton on Israel policy. Ok. Obama is affiliated with some pretty radical Black Exceptionalist thinkers, but on the other hand he spoke to AIPAC and made a solid impression. There is no information on his Israel stance (indeed, no mention of it) on his site. What does the man believe about Israel?

Hegemon to Pokemon.

NYT has a long piece on the end of American hegemony (hegemony: for all practical purposes, sole superpower status). I have been touting this notion since the formation of the EU. Those who said that the EU's lack of a military prevented it from rivaling America's power. Those people were and are idiots. Look around. The Global 100 companies have revnues greater than most of the second world countries. Money talks and buys muscle. Ask Blackwater.

So:

1. Is this the end of American hegemony? I think so. I think it has ended and that the effect our proto-recession had on the markets is less a show of our dominance than a show of our importance in an interconnected global economy. Last time this happened, we didn't care what the effect might be overseas.
2. Was it inevitable? (read: is it W's fault?) I would love to place this squarely on 43's shoulders, but the truth is the ascent of Europe and Asia was a long time in coming.
3. Did W hasten it? Yes. Iraq showed that our military was limited. Moreover, it stretched us monetarily while the rest of the globe found ways to up their growth numbers. Move over American economy. Want to know what happened to the last great empire? Go to London. The prime real estate is no longer owned by the Brits. What is the story in NYC today? Foreign buyers. Here we go.

Kennedy = Obama. But that might be bad.

Caroline Kennedy endorsed Barack Obama in the NYT this morning, saying that other candidates have experience and plans, but that that may not be enough. She is appealing to the rich white upper crust of the population to look deep into the eyes of an inspiring leader and find a piece of the politics that so moved their parents.

I think that is the major reason to vote for Barack. Inspiration. To be able to change this country with a change of attitude and a positivist charge would kick-start (or could at least kick-start) as resurgence of America as "America."

On the other hand, presidents of ideals are not so great. Bush was the president of evangelical ideals. The right saw him as the prodigal son of a generation-long investment in conservative public service grooming.

Kennedy, if not for the assassination that defined his role in American history, might be instead remembered for the Bay of Pigs, the attendant collapse of relations wit Cuba that led to the missile crisis, or the beginnings of 'Nam. Bad decisions by an inexperienced president acting on his ideals -- even one surrounded by great advisers.

I am not staking a position for or against these candidates. I just posit this as something to think about.

Cheating on my wife with Google.

Thanks to DR for this one.

1. Go to Google, like you do 146 times every day.
2. Enter "Find Chuck Norris"
3. Click "I'm feeling lucky."
4. Be Am(az)(us)ed.

Scrubs and the 'Bowl

Add this to your reasons to hate Dr. Cox. He's a Giants fan.

For Immediate Release

AC Phones It In.

Budding area lawyer, AC, has decided to call in sick for the first time since god knows when. Sources close to Mr. C have noted that he has been ill for nearly two weeks, honking and sneezing his way around the office. "Seriously, it was kind of gross. The guy was dripping like a faucet. We were like, go home. And he was like, there's a lot to do. That's true and all, but...I mean, eew."

Reports indicate that C and spouse RSC are both home sick, and early indications are that they may even bill a full day's work between them. "We stayed in bed until we could move, and then rolled over," said Mr. C to nobody in particular. "Smoothies and soup, that's pretty much our lives right now. Oh, and the Simpsons Movie," chirped RSC. More on the flick to come.

Both sad sacks of bio-hazardous waste are expected back in the office tomorrow.

Just Wierd Enough to Post

Tasha Maltby, at right, is Dani Graves "pet." Not in the endearing sense, mind you. In the lay out my clothes, make my food, clean my house, and then lead my around by a leash sense. The cuddly-in-black couple made news when she/it/woof! was kicked off a bus for wearing the leash. The bus driver thought it posed a public safety hazard.

I am not sure. I am also not sure that the bus company has to issue an apology, as it has chosen to do. If you go around dressed in a manner well outside the norm, I think you take a risk that some people will react badly to it. Indeed, isn't that many times the point? So if you do manage to get a rise out of someone, why do you then deserve an apology?

( Sorry, the Beeb always makes we lapse into mother tongue dialect.)

An addendum: I'll admit that this post is here for "freak" appeal. I am not proud of that, but I am human after all. I'll even go so far as to admit 'seeing' what Ms. Maltby might find appealing about being submissive. (in the liberal intellectual sense, calm yourselves; especially you, RSC)Yet, I associate that with a sexual choice, not a general character trait. What is wrong with leaving those kinds of preferences at home and/or sharing them outwardly with people you know and trust instead of insisting on adopting it as your persona at large?

Things You Already Knew Because You Are Smarter Than Me

"Green Collar" job: a job that putatively aids the environment. Why putatively? Because, like CFLs which contain hazardous waste, and Ethanol which takes more petroleum to produce than it saves, most environmental jobs are not all they are cracked up to be.

But before you go haranguing me for poo-pooing the "green revolution" know that at least this term has been around since 1992. Of course, it will never have been bandied about with such reckless abandon as it will in the coming six months.

You Could Have a Tort Ummel, Maybe, If You Just Give it Half a Chance

The Ummels are suing their ReMax buyer's agent because they claim they overpaid for their $1.150M home. A later appraisal on the property put it at $1.05M, or $100K less -- a roughly 9% flub. Their legal fees currently stand at $75K.

1. How much "caveat emptor" should there be when you are purchasing a seven figure property?
2. Moreover, does a less-than-10% variance in value constitute negligence on the part of the buyer's agent?
3. How can you tell the difference between buying at a price inflated by your buyer's agent and a price inflated by the market? By definition, someone has to buy at the top of the market. How can you tell the difference between that and a fraudulent sale?

What is certain: If this begins a trend of suits against buyer's agents, their insurance premiums will go up and someone will have to bear that cost. Either it will mean leaner margins, and fewer agents or less service, or it will mean higher costs. We'll see what the court does.

Personal Annual Report

Josh Feltron has published a "personal annual report" for the past few years. "Lame lame lame," I thought, "but also lame enough to be intruiging." So I clicked and discovered that Mr. Feltron is a graphic artist (www.mgfn.com) (a good one) and that his annual report is an elegant mix of typography / layout and neat snippets of personal stats (days traveled, miles run, best wedding, best meals, iTunes tracks listened to, etc.).

Mr. Feltron, I salute you.

Still Illin.

What kind of bug doesn't improve one iota in a week!?!

Apparently, Mr. Smith, your vote is worth precisely $800

Bruce Bartlett. fmr. asst. Sec. Treas. says the "stimulous package" will do more for a dirty joke than for the economy -- I am paraphrasing. So he says in that liberal rag, the WSJ.

So, let's play our favorite game again, cui bono? Who stands to benefit if Mr. Bush decides to start doling out checks again? Well, let's see. The package is passed now andwill likely require about 2 months to set up, then another month to send out the checks, and we are in April. Just before the summer push to Election Day. Republicans will toot the "tax cut"/"money back in your pocket" trumpet and try to push Republicans to the polls.

Yes, this is cynical. Even more cynical is a guess that $800 might buy some goodwill from independent voters, but then we're arguing that the White House is leveraging the fisc for the benefit of part politics. I don't think I want to go that far.

I'll admit that I don't see any economic plus-side here and the political plus-side is a little fuzzy. Can anyone draw a clearer line as to who benefits from the cut?

Patriots.

Superbowl. Period.

For all of you who can't wait to tell me how 'insufferable' I have been for tooting our horn almost not at all this season, I can't stop you. Go ahead. But please, let's get three things down:

1. This team is the most well-balanced, well tempered team most of us have ever seen. Multiple receivers thrown to in every game; a Randy Moss who understands that he is just a part of the marvelous machine; a late-budding running game; an aging-nay veteran-defense that shows up every single week and does not relent; a special teams squad that just executes over and over again; and a QB who is smart and has great vision. It is a supreme mix.

2. This coaching, spy-gate notwithstanding, has made this season. Why? Two things. Making it a "team" and making that team play 60 minutes every. single. game. If you can make Randy, Seau, and Brady mesh on this team, you have some serious talent. And if you can make them play all sixty minutes every week, you are a god. How many times did people get down on WR for dropping off their routes when they knew they would not be thrown to? It's hasn't been an issue this year, so the Pats always drew defenders. etc. etc. etc. Eventually, you can't compete with it.

3. This team is relatively humble. There is very, very little grandstanding. I didn't like spy-gate and it will forever be attached to this team. But this team has not touted its greatness - yet. If it wins two weeks from now, it will simply revel in being the best ever -- for a long, long time.

p.s. Eli, I am revising my opinion of you. You are a clutch quarterback. You made some great throws. To mature, you just have to do that more consistently. I know you want back to back Manning superbowls. More than that, we all know your daddy wants it. And what Marty wants, Marty gets.

p.p.s. I said it before the game, it was Favre's risky tosses that would determine the game, and they did. He is really great. It just hurts that much more when he throws it away.

The Blairzilla project.

'Cloverfield' is being panned. So, you mean a gimmick gets old after almost an hour and a half without the respite of at least a steady-cam mount?

LOC on FlickR

MentalFloss notes that the Library of Congress has posted color photos from the 30's and 40's on FlickR. They are amazing and, as MF mentions, a reminder that life didn't magically come into color in the 50s.



Here is the FlickR Link. And a taste:

The Science of Tricking

Two great science tidbits:

If you will it, it is no dream.
Scientists have discovered that people who are told that a wine costs more report enjoying it more. And if you think that they are simply reporting in line with what they are expected to say, think again. Electrodes confirm greater activity in the pleasure center of the brain. So, if you think you are going to have more pleasure, you will.

You got a grant for what?!
New Mexico psych profs actually got money to go to a local strip joint and check tips for strippers. Those who were not an birth control and ovulating made more in tips than those who were not ovulating (by nearly 2:1). Those on birth control had a constant stream of tips at about the average.

1. It is impressive to think that we can pick up on these signals and have no idea.
2. Who paid for this study?
3. The researchers actually recommended that women in service jobs schedule more shifts while ovulating! This is a silly econ. argument. The study showed that those on the pill made the average rate of tips at all times. That is the lowest-risk, highest-yield option. BC for everyone!

Some Immuno-Comic Relief

Some of you know that I have been ill for the past week. A trip to the doctor confirms that this is in the enourmously broad category of "cold," rather than the equally cavernous bucket, "flu." Treatment: none. Patient has been instructed to "treat the symptoms." Patient lives in Washington D.C. and is well aware of-, and unsurprised by, this strategy.

This cold has launched me into such coughing and sneezing fits as I have rarely known. Yet, one stands above the rest. On my forehead is a bump, a result of a full torso-folding sneeze in the bathroom, followed immediately by a second-wave sneeze.

Ah-choo!, Ah-chooo! Ugh!

Dazed, patient looks up at the mirror to realize that he has hit his head on the faucet to the sink. Patient remarks to himself that this cannot be possible given that the faucet is one of those low-set modern types "way down there." Patient's new bump begs to differ.

Owie.

Carbon Credits.

The FTC is investigating companies that sell "carbon credits." These companies purport to do good for the environment in one place, and then offer to sell companies a share of that good so that they can offset pollution in another place.

This is a more exaggerated form of the carbon credit marketplace that failed and is undergoing major retooling in Europe. (wiki).

First, the idea of trading credits only works when companies that were polluting anyway, manage to beat emissions standards by enough of a margin that they can sell that margin to other polluters (who are slower to catch up) to help them reach the same standards. It provides an economic incentive to clean more, faster, and creates a higher cost for larger polluters. When you insert companies that do nothing but generate credits, you undercut this system by eliminating the incentive to clean up and replacing it with just an increased cost to meet emission standards.

Second, from a practical perspective, does planting trees or releasing algae into the ocean really help? If I am polluting in N. Carolina, a release of algae in the North Sea might help the globe, but it does nothing for N. Carolina or the United States, which is what the regulators really care about.

Finally, carbon offsets present something of an ethical dilemma. Accepting that pollution is bad, the solution is to require people to reduce, not to enable them to offset it with good acts elsewhere. For example, if cap and trade were permitted in the legal system, Jack Abramoff could have been able to argue that his extortive and corrupt practices were offset by the fact that so much of the proceeds went to charity. That doesn't make sense to us because we don't want people to rob the rich to pay the poor -- we don't anyone to rob anyone else, period. Same goes here.

I am a law-talking guy after all!

The Supreme Court handed down a decision in Stoneridge v. Scientific Atlanta yesterday. Your eyes are starting to glaze over, but wait! CFO.com quoted a G'Town law professor who called the decision the "Roe v. Wade" of securities law.

The scenario: A cable company, Charter, entered into sham transactions with Scientific Atlanta and Motorola to inflate earnings. Charter signed fake marketing agreements with the two companies (who were in on the whole thing) to boost Charter's revenue. It then gave them the money back by tacking on an additional $20 to each cable box that Charter bought. To hide the scheme, Charter backdated the cable box contracts.

The Suit: Plaintiffs sued Scientific Atlanta and Motorola, not just for business fraud (a state claim), but also for violations of the federal securities laws. Why? Because Charter's fraudulent revenue statements could not have been made but for the underlying fraud.

The decision: The Court stated that Plaintiffs could maintain fraud suits in state court but could not maintain suit for securities law violations. Why? Charter made a misstatement of its revenues to the public via an SEC filing and caused investors harm. The Court found that Scientific Atlanta and Motorola's acts in entering into the underlying fraudulent transactions were too far removed from that statement to have caused a violation of the securities laws.

The disclaimer: This is a very quick review of a complex court case. There is a lot of talk about the rightness/wrongness or effect of the decision. I am not touching any of that here.

Why it is on the blog: The comment that it is "Roe v. Wade." Um. No. This is hailed a win for business over the investor. In the general political perspective, a win for Wall Street is the inverse of Roe.

Perhaps it is "Roe"-like because it creates a new test or framework for deciding cases? Again, no. This case simply states that Congress did not intend to create a private right of action for aiding and abetting securities violations.

So we are left asking if it is like Roe merely because it is might be an iconic or watershed decision. That seems to be the case. If so, the good professor is just grandstanding, and that, I dare say, is a poor academic step.

Wouldn't it be nice?

If instead of filing an "answer" to a legal "complaint," you had the option to file a "shut up and take it like a man"?

MacBook Air

Oh. My. God. http://www.apple.com/macbookair/

Recession watch.

I don't mean to be a downer. A recession is a natural economic reality. Sometimes the bulls win and sometimes the bears win, as they say. I will be posting tidbits asking the following questions:

1. Are we headed into or actually in a recession?
2. What should you do in a recession? (based on expert advice, or at least more knowledgable than me)
3. What are the causes fo recession? In particular, do we talk ourselves into recession?

First installment, the NYTimes reports a pronounced decline in consumption from this time last year. More than consumer confidence or the price index, this would indicate that people expect a recession.

The prices of commodities are also at high points, another "classic sign" of recession because commodities are seen as safe hedges when the market tanks.

Tomorrow, the contrary view. You decide.

Paralympian Deemed Superior to Mere Humans

Double amputee Oscar Pistorius has been ruled ineligible under IAAF rules (the body governing track) after a German scientist found that the carbon-fiber blades Oscar uses give him a "clear technical advantage." This is different from having wheel-chair on the track, but nobody has yet challenged the scientist's findings that the blades require 2/3 less energy. If the science is sound, I have no objection.

Here is my beef: let's eliminate all "clear technical advantage" and assess atheletes on pure skill. Out with the shark suits, kevlar track shoes, carbon fibre bobselds, high end skis, etc. Let's create a standard set of equipment and have everyone use it. You win with that and we know it was all you, it was not - so-to-speak - the shoes.