Romney is out. He had a lot more delegates than Huckabee, which gives you some idea of that man's chances. What happens to Romney's delegates?
Per Yahoo! Answers: He gets to keep them. Mitt suspended rather than ended his candidacy, so he retains the delegates until the convention, where he can use them as leverage for policy positions, political office, or a veep of his choice (he wouldn't want it, and he is not a good choice).
If the sky falls and Huckabee picks up a head of steam down the stretch, Huckabee could pull a deal to get the delegates from Romney and be a contender at the convention. That's unlikely, given that Romney would have pulled out while in 2d position only to hand the candidacy to the man in 3d position.
More likely is that McCain will just go in there with a HUGE lead and take the delegates without much in the way of concessions given that he can counter Romney's leverage with the threat of a protracted runoff.
2.07.2008
Political Tidbit
More on Superdelegates, because I am learning more about them. TNR's Dayo Olopade (whose name is SO close to a palindrome - Olooyad would do it) argues that they won't matter. Why? Because even in a close race, they tend to vote with the candidate that conventional wisdom says is the front-runner. Oh, and they will be wooed by both sides to endorse before the convention, so perhaps we'll know ahead of time.
Um. To me that sounds a whole lot like they will matter. At 800+, they are 20% of the total 4000+ Dem delegates. Tangent 1: That's like winning several states! Tangent 2: an endorsement and a pledge are two different things. The former is reversible when it matters most. But the bottom line: If the Superdelegates are 20%, then they can determine any race that closer than 20% coming into the convention. That is the outside limit of their power, so they can certainly affect a 5-8 point race.
DA-YO! That is huge. Da-a-a-yo. Del-e-gate votes coun' fo much much mo!
Um. To me that sounds a whole lot like they will matter. At 800+, they are 20% of the total 4000+ Dem delegates. Tangent 1: That's like winning several states! Tangent 2: an endorsement and a pledge are two different things. The former is reversible when it matters most. But the bottom line: If the Superdelegates are 20%, then they can determine any race that closer than 20% coming into the convention. That is the outside limit of their power, so they can certainly affect a 5-8 point race.
DA-YO! That is huge. Da-a-a-yo. Del-e-gate votes coun' fo much much mo!
2.06.2008
Political Tidbit
Super Tuesday is over and nobody really knows who the front-runner is on the Dem. side. Most places can't even agree on delegate counts.
CNN has Clinton at 825 and Obama at 732
WaPo has Clinton at 845 and Obama at 765
If you take out the superdelegates (Clinton has about 90 more), the race is a dead heat. There is no indication of how the remaining 100-200 superdelegates [ EDIT: There are 800 superdelegates, and only around 3000+ delegates, so they are a huge factor], will pledge or how Edwards's 26 pledged delegates will vote. Ergo, no dominant candidate. You can ignore the rhetoric.
As for the Republicans: I said it after the Reagan Library debate. I thought Huckabee was great. Last night showed the effects of that. Of course, the winner takes all model means he has zero chance at prez. I think he has zero chance at VP under McCain too. Too bad. Mitt, go home. This is over.
CNN has Clinton at 825 and Obama at 732
WaPo has Clinton at 845 and Obama at 765
If you take out the superdelegates (Clinton has about 90 more), the race is a dead heat. There is no indication of how the remaining 100-200 superdelegates [ EDIT: There are 800 superdelegates, and only around 3000+ delegates, so they are a huge factor], will pledge or how Edwards's 26 pledged delegates will vote. Ergo, no dominant candidate. You can ignore the rhetoric.
As for the Republicans: I said it after the Reagan Library debate. I thought Huckabee was great. Last night showed the effects of that. Of course, the winner takes all model means he has zero chance at prez. I think he has zero chance at VP under McCain too. Too bad. Mitt, go home. This is over.
Glad We Won That War.
Narco-traffickers have turned increasingly to submersibles (boats just beneath the surface that put up a snorkel for air) to move cocaine to the U.S. The vessels can costs up to an estimated $2M each. And they are built in the jungle. And they are made of fiberglass to make them invisible to sonar.
Maybe we should just spend money supporting other industries in Colombia and even more than that combating the demand at home. Clearly, what we've done up to now is not working.
Maybe we should just spend money supporting other industries in Colombia and even more than that combating the demand at home. Clearly, what we've done up to now is not working.
2.05.2008
Do Not Try This At Home...
...unless your home is on fire and it might be your only hope to save your baby and yourself. Still ...
It is crazy that this is not a doctored photo. A family in Germany hucked an infant to rescuers waiting below who caught the little bugger.
It is crazy that this is not a doctored photo. A family in Germany hucked an infant to rescuers waiting below who caught the little bugger.Recession watch.
CNN cites the drop in the services sector as an indicator (to many economists) that we are in a recession. The only problem is that the score, which is a complex average not unlike the NFL's QB rating, is based on assumptions different from those previously used. Thus, there is no 1:1 comparison to be had. That said, they cite negative growth, which combines with job losses in Q4 of 2007 to indicate larger losses.
I personally think we are there. Yes, we need 2 quarters to prove it, but that doesn't change whether you are or are not in a recession for those 2 quarters. There is also a notion of a "flat growth recession." I'll pass along what I learn about that.
Bottom line, recession watch is moving from "Are we in it?" to an attempt to stay ahead of the game with, "How should you manage your finances in a recession?"
I personally think we are there. Yes, we need 2 quarters to prove it, but that doesn't change whether you are or are not in a recession for those 2 quarters. There is also a notion of a "flat growth recession." I'll pass along what I learn about that.
Bottom line, recession watch is moving from "Are we in it?" to an attempt to stay ahead of the game with, "How should you manage your finances in a recession?"
2.04.2008
Can You Hear Me Now?
This was supposedly Pepsi's new SB ad. I watched close to every (agonizing) minute and didn't see it. It is posted here because it is wonderful.
Did anyone see it?
Stuck in the Middle with ... Everybody?
Apparently, I am not in the middle class. CRS (Congressional Research Service) doesn't think so, placing the top of the middle class at an income of $91K a year. On the other hand, CRS admits that, of American's polled, only 1-3% said they were upper class, leaving the rest in the middle, with incomes as high as $250K. Crazy? I think that really depends where you live.
$250K in South Florida is enough for a house and perhaps a boat. In Iowa, it might be enough for a manse and a porsche. In New York City, that's barely enough to pay the mortgage on a 2-bedroom. That's why they pay so much in New York, half in Florida, and even less in Iowa. Without a weighted COLA adjustment, these numbers are misleading.
I certainly don't have the trappings of an upper class existence. Heck, I'd argue I'm not even upper middle-class. But that might raise more eyebrows.
$250K in South Florida is enough for a house and perhaps a boat. In Iowa, it might be enough for a manse and a porsche. In New York City, that's barely enough to pay the mortgage on a 2-bedroom. That's why they pay so much in New York, half in Florida, and even less in Iowa. Without a weighted COLA adjustment, these numbers are misleading.
I certainly don't have the trappings of an upper class existence. Heck, I'd argue I'm not even upper middle-class. But that might raise more eyebrows.
Pats Past Perfect.
A lot of ink will and has been spilled on yesterday's incredible superbowl. Congrats to the G-men on keeping the Pats offense off the field, executing on defense when they were on the field, and making the big plays in final 2:40 seconds.
One note: A lot of people are placing the blame that feet of the Pats' defense. I think we should instead place the credit for the win on G-men's defense. The game 5 weeks ago indicated that we'd see a high score. The spreads echoed that, as did Burress's 23-17 prediction and Brady's reaction to it (i.e. "Really? You think we'll only score 17 points?!"). The Pats defense held the Giants to less then half that former score while spending nearly twice as long on the field. Kudos to that squad. On the other hand, it was the Giant's offensive line that kept the pressure on Brady time and again, sacking him some, but hurrying him often, that kept the Pats' score lower -- most importantly, lower than the Giants.
18-1. Can't tell if this is more or less of a big deal than the alternative.
One note: A lot of people are placing the blame that feet of the Pats' defense. I think we should instead place the credit for the win on G-men's defense. The game 5 weeks ago indicated that we'd see a high score. The spreads echoed that, as did Burress's 23-17 prediction and Brady's reaction to it (i.e. "Really? You think we'll only score 17 points?!"). The Pats defense held the Giants to less then half that former score while spending nearly twice as long on the field. Kudos to that squad. On the other hand, it was the Giant's offensive line that kept the pressure on Brady time and again, sacking him some, but hurrying him often, that kept the Pats' score lower -- most importantly, lower than the Giants.
18-1. Can't tell if this is more or less of a big deal than the alternative.
2.01.2008
Political Tidbit - NOT about the election
...it's about the budget. I was surprised to see that the White House is looking for a domestic spending freeze to attempt to balance the budget by 2012. I could rant for a long time, but instead, I'll leave it to a few questions:
- Now the Bush administration thinks it is a good time to cut back spending? Well into his lame duck years?!
- Spending on border security is going up. This is purely political. Has to be. There is no evidence that the border is any more broken than it was last year and spending on it went nowhere then...so why now?
- Will less government spending improve the economy or make it worse? I don't know and clearly the WH doesn't know, given that it just endorsed a several $B tax rebate and now wants to slow spending. So which is it?
- The cuts are coming from domestic programs, largely Medicare ($170B). With Doctors alreay under a huge crunch turning away medicare patients, do we really need to be injecting more stress into this system? Further, the amount cut from Medicare nears the amount spent on the tax rebate. Mr. Bush, you have my permission to take that money and re-task it from those of us unable to afford our $60/mo HD + DVR + sports package cable/internet packages to those of us suffering under long wait times, hassled care givers, and poor insurance coverage.
1.31.2008
Political Tidbit
Romney has decided NOT to advertise on television in ANY of the 21 states going into super Tuesday. It was my impression that money wins elections in large part because it permits media buys of precisely this type. With McCain seen as having momentum, a media blitz by McCain's camp would only serve to underscore that to a public that hears a defeaning silence from Romney.
I think this is a fatal error. I give McCain a 90% shot at the nomination. Oh, and I think Romney was right last night -- McCain's the Republican the Dems want to run against.
Also: for those who have not heard, the Dems have something called "Superdelegates." These are delegates who get to vote in the convention but are not affiliated with a state. There are over 400 of them, out of 3000+ delegates. They are huge in a tight race. Who the heck thought up this system?
I think this is a fatal error. I give McCain a 90% shot at the nomination. Oh, and I think Romney was right last night -- McCain's the Republican the Dems want to run against.
Also: for those who have not heard, the Dems have something called "Superdelegates." These are delegates who get to vote in the convention but are not affiliated with a state. There are over 400 of them, out of 3000+ delegates. They are huge in a tight race. Who the heck thought up this system?
1.30.2008
Political Tidbit
1. Is it legal to take the delegates away from Florida primary voters? I just don't know.
2. Edwards is purportedly out. He says he won't play kingmaker for Hillary or Obama. Would it matter? Are Edwards supporters more Obama or more Hillary people? I can't tell. I think they just drop into the GenPop, as the wardens say.
3. I think this is a good indication that, like our guesses, that Edwards was not interested in a vice presidency.
4. Enough about the dems -- their primary last night meant nothing. On to the reps and America's Mayor, who is reported to be dropping out and tossing his support behind McCain. If so, is that the end for Romney? Also, same question as before: are hawkish middle of the road on social issues supporters of Rudy really going to jump into the socially conservative, potentially big government, but still hawkish McCain camp?
2. Edwards is purportedly out. He says he won't play kingmaker for Hillary or Obama. Would it matter? Are Edwards supporters more Obama or more Hillary people? I can't tell. I think they just drop into the GenPop, as the wardens say.
3. I think this is a good indication that, like our guesses, that Edwards was not interested in a vice presidency.
4. Enough about the dems -- their primary last night meant nothing. On to the reps and America's Mayor, who is reported to be dropping out and tossing his support behind McCain. If so, is that the end for Romney? Also, same question as before: are hawkish middle of the road on social issues supporters of Rudy really going to jump into the socially conservative, potentially big government, but still hawkish McCain camp?
1.29.2008
Political Tidbit
Three short thoughts.
- Slate argues that W's final SOTU (State of the Union) sounded so close to prior speeches that it implies he has not learned anything. The administrations "how about more of the same" policies leave me inclined to believe it. Is there any sign that W acknowledges the mistakes in his presidency?
- 1.5 years ago, we saw stories that McCain was wandering the halls of R bigwigs stalking support. I scoffed then, and thought, "He was laughed at then; he'll be laughed at now." Now he is the front runner. Did those alliances lead to this status? Have they propelled him over Romney?
- I am famous for my dislike of the one issue voter. That issue is usually Israel, and my refrain is that Israel policy has not changed in substance for nearly 20 years. That said, I am not a one issue voter, but that issue IS on my list. With Hillary, I think we get more Clinton on Israel policy. Ok. Obama is affiliated with some pretty radical Black Exceptionalist thinkers, but on the other hand he spoke to AIPAC and made a solid impression. There is no information on his Israel stance (indeed, no mention of it) on his site. What does the man believe about Israel?
1.28.2008
Hegemon to Pokemon.
NYT has a long piece on the end of American hegemony (hegemony: for all practical purposes, sole superpower status). I have been touting this notion since the formation of the EU. Those who said that the EU's lack of a military prevented it from rivaling America's power. Those people were and are idiots. Look around. The Global 100 companies have revnues greater than most of the second world countries. Money talks and buys muscle. Ask Blackwater.
So:
So:
- Is this the end of American hegemony? I think so. I think it has ended and that the effect our proto-recession had on the markets is less a show of our dominance than a show of our importance in an interconnected global economy. Last time this happened, we didn't care what the effect might be overseas.
- Was it inevitable? (read: is it W's fault?) I would love to place this squarely on 43's shoulders, but the truth is the ascent of Europe and Asia was a long time in coming.
- Did W hasten it? Yes. Iraq showed that our military was limited. Moreover, it stretched us monetarily while the rest of the globe found ways to up their growth numbers. Move over American economy. Want to know what happened to the last great empire? Go to London. The prime real estate is no longer owned by the Brits. What is the story in NYC today? Foreign buyers. Here we go.
1.27.2008
Kennedy = Obama. But that might be bad.
Caroline Kennedy endorsed Barack Obama in the NYT this morning, saying that other candidates have experience and plans, but that that may not be enough. She is appealing to the rich white upper crust of the population to look deep into the eyes of an inspiring leader and find a piece of the politics that so moved their parents.
I think that is the major reason to vote for Barack. Inspiration. To be able to change this country with a change of attitude and a positivist charge would kick-start (or could at least kick-start) as resurgence of America as "America."
On the other hand, presidents of ideals are not so great. Bush was the president of evangelical ideals. The right saw him as the prodigal son of a generation-long investment in conservative public service grooming.
Kennedy, if not for the assassination that defined his role in American history, might be instead remembered for the Bay of Pigs, the attendant collapse of relations wit Cuba that led to the missile crisis, or the beginnings of 'Nam. Bad decisions by an inexperienced president acting on his ideals -- even one surrounded by great advisers.
I am not staking a position for or against these candidates. I just posit this as something to think about.
I think that is the major reason to vote for Barack. Inspiration. To be able to change this country with a change of attitude and a positivist charge would kick-start (or could at least kick-start) as resurgence of America as "America."
On the other hand, presidents of ideals are not so great. Bush was the president of evangelical ideals. The right saw him as the prodigal son of a generation-long investment in conservative public service grooming.
Kennedy, if not for the assassination that defined his role in American history, might be instead remembered for the Bay of Pigs, the attendant collapse of relations wit Cuba that led to the missile crisis, or the beginnings of 'Nam. Bad decisions by an inexperienced president acting on his ideals -- even one surrounded by great advisers.
I am not staking a position for or against these candidates. I just posit this as something to think about.
1.25.2008
Cheating on my wife with Google.
Thanks to DR for this one.
1. Go to Google, like you do 146 times every day.
2. Enter "Find Chuck Norris"
3. Click "I'm feeling lucky."
4. Be Am(az)(us)ed.
1. Go to Google, like you do 146 times every day.
2. Enter "Find Chuck Norris"
3. Click "I'm feeling lucky."
4. Be Am(az)(us)ed.
1.24.2008
For Immediate Release
AC Phones It In.
Budding area lawyer, AC, has decided to call in sick for the first time since god knows when. Sources close to Mr. C have noted that he has been ill for nearly two weeks, honking and sneezing his way around the office. "Seriously, it was kind of gross. The guy was dripping like a faucet. We were like, go home. And he was like, there's a lot to do. That's true and all, but...I mean, eew."
Reports indicate that C and spouse RSC are both home sick, and early indications are that they may even bill a full day's work between them. "We stayed in bed until we could move, and then rolled over," said Mr. C to nobody in particular. "Smoothies and soup, that's pretty much our lives right now. Oh, and the Simpsons Movie," chirped RSC. More on the flick to come.
Both sad sacks of bio-hazardous waste are expected back in the office tomorrow.
Budding area lawyer, AC, has decided to call in sick for the first time since god knows when. Sources close to Mr. C have noted that he has been ill for nearly two weeks, honking and sneezing his way around the office. "Seriously, it was kind of gross. The guy was dripping like a faucet. We were like, go home. And he was like, there's a lot to do. That's true and all, but...I mean, eew."
Reports indicate that C and spouse RSC are both home sick, and early indications are that they may even bill a full day's work between them. "We stayed in bed until we could move, and then rolled over," said Mr. C to nobody in particular. "Smoothies and soup, that's pretty much our lives right now. Oh, and the Simpsons Movie," chirped RSC. More on the flick to come.
Both sad sacks of bio-hazardous waste are expected back in the office tomorrow.
1.23.2008
Just Wierd Enough to Post
Tasha Maltby, at right, is Dani Graves "pet." Not in the endearing sense, mind you. In the lay out my clothes, make my food, clean my house, and then lead my around by a leash sense. The cuddly-in-black couple made news when she/it/woof! was kicked off a bus for wearing the leash. The bus driver thought it posed a public safety hazard.I am not sure. I am also not sure that the bus company has to issue an apology, as it has chosen to do. If you go around dressed in a manner well outside the norm, I think you take a risk that some people will react badly to it. Indeed, isn't that many times the point? So if you do manage to get a rise out of someone, why do you then deserve an apology?
( Sorry, the Beeb always makes we lapse into mother tongue dialect.)
An addendum: I'll admit that this post is here for "freak" appeal. I am not proud of that, but I am human after all. I'll even go so far as to admit 'seeing' what Ms. Maltby might find appealing about being submissive. (in the liberal intellectual sense, calm yourselves; especially you, RSC)Yet, I associate that with a sexual choice, not a general character trait. What is wrong with leaving those kinds of preferences at home and/or sharing them outwardly with people you know and trust instead of insisting on adopting it as your persona at large?
Things You Already Knew Because You Are Smarter Than Me
"Green Collar" job: a job that putatively aids the environment. Why putatively? Because, like CFLs which contain hazardous waste, and Ethanol which takes more petroleum to produce than it saves, most environmental jobs are not all they are cracked up to be.
But before you go haranguing me for poo-pooing the "green revolution" know that at least this term has been around since 1992. Of course, it will never have been bandied about with such reckless abandon as it will in the coming six months.
But before you go haranguing me for poo-pooing the "green revolution" know that at least this term has been around since 1992. Of course, it will never have been bandied about with such reckless abandon as it will in the coming six months.
1.22.2008
You Could Have a Tort Ummel, Maybe, If You Just Give it Half a Chance
The Ummels are suing their ReMax buyer's agent because they claim they overpaid for their $1.150M home. A later appraisal on the property put it at $1.05M, or $100K less -- a roughly 9% flub. Their legal fees currently stand at $75K.
1. How much "caveat emptor" should there be when you are purchasing a seven figure property?
2. Moreover, does a less-than-10% variance in value constitute negligence on the part of the buyer's agent?
3. How can you tell the difference between buying at a price inflated by your buyer's agent and a price inflated by the market? By definition, someone has to buy at the top of the market. How can you tell the difference between that and a fraudulent sale?
What is certain: If this begins a trend of suits against buyer's agents, their insurance premiums will go up and someone will have to bear that cost. Either it will mean leaner margins, and fewer agents or less service, or it will mean higher costs. We'll see what the court does.
1. How much "caveat emptor" should there be when you are purchasing a seven figure property?
2. Moreover, does a less-than-10% variance in value constitute negligence on the part of the buyer's agent?
3. How can you tell the difference between buying at a price inflated by your buyer's agent and a price inflated by the market? By definition, someone has to buy at the top of the market. How can you tell the difference between that and a fraudulent sale?
What is certain: If this begins a trend of suits against buyer's agents, their insurance premiums will go up and someone will have to bear that cost. Either it will mean leaner margins, and fewer agents or less service, or it will mean higher costs. We'll see what the court does.
Personal Annual Report
Josh Feltron has published a "personal annual report" for the past few years. "Lame lame lame," I thought, "but also lame enough to be intruiging." So I clicked and discovered that Mr. Feltron is a graphic artist (www.mgfn.com) (a good one) and that his annual report is an elegant mix of typography / layout and neat snippets of personal stats (days traveled, miles run, best wedding, best meals, iTunes tracks listened to, etc.).Mr. Feltron, I salute you.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)